Rebranding My Substack
Announcing a change to my platform for 2025 and beyond.
Originally, I started this Substack as a way to share and track my investment thesis’ and the way my process has evolved with time. Today is going to mark a key change.
Although I was focused on the microcap market early in my investing tenure, I find myself hunting in small, mid and even large caps today. I still believe the microcap sector is filled with more undiscovered alpha than any other segment in the global market. I may also post more microcap ideas down the road, but no longer want to box myself into this niche.
In reflecting on the last 3 years, I find myself evaluating risk / reward on a 24 month timeline, instead of over 5 years, like many forecast. Not only do I feel more confident in my assumptions, but I believe my accuracy with successful ideas has expanded with it.
I’ve slowly developed a bias toward opportunities with 100% upside in a 24 month timeline, over those with 200-300% upside in 3-5 years. Focusing my thoughts on a shorter time frame has created a more predictable outcome. In the event that execution doesn’t align to my expectations for 3-4 quarters, I can assess whether I was wrong (which will happen), liquidate the position, and focus on new ideas.
My investing approach is still predicated on divergence. In other words, I seek to find divergence between the markets view of the truth, and what I subjectively deem to be the truth. The wider the divergence, the greater the opportunity. But what makes investing difficult, is that most opportunities, are not inherently great. I will remain picky in where I believe great outcomes lie.
My New Focus:
This page will now be dedicated to ideas of all industries and market caps, with the goal of a more well protected risk / reward seen through a 24 month time frame. My substack will be rebranded to: Komodo Capital, with my new X profile being, @komodo_capital.
I draw a few unique parallel’s between my style and the Komodo dragon:
Komodo dragons hunting technique is predicated on patience, holding still until prey passes by. Amazingly, they’ve been known to go nearly two months without food, waiting for an opportune hunt. Based on my lackluster schedule of publishing research, it’s obvious that I’m willing to wait for the right “meal” to come into my line of sight, as well.
The Komodo dragon can consume nearly its entire body weight in one meal! I found this to be a funny analogy, as multiple times I have “consumed” a position worth greater than 30%+ of my net worth, a la: Meta Platforms and Talen Energy. Although concentration is a double-edge sword, I am quite comfortable “striking” when I see an opportunity skewed to my benefit.
Lastly, I resonated with the fact that they tend to stay close to home, after birth. Although they can run up to 13 MPH, climb, and swim, they would rather adapt to the settings of their environment, a contrast to the ever-changing backdrop of markets.
2025 has kicked off in a volatile way, with unknowns being processed with a new administration in the U.S. However, I am very bullish for 2025, and expect a great year for the Komodo Capital portfolio.
Thank you to all those who follow, god bless you.