6 Comments
User's avatar
Gordon's avatar

Nice write up. Fellow shareholder since 2022

Are you still writing?

Expand full comment
Komodo Capital's avatar

Hi Gordon - thank you. I am still writing for my personal investment ideas but haven’t found many unique ideas that haven’t been pitched by others on Substack. Additionally, my career has taken much of my time from publishing content. Appreciate you reading, however… and I want to publish a new piece next month!

Expand full comment
Unai Arregui Maestre's avatar

Great job!

Banash, valuation will take care of itself, i am more focused on being right in the company and management and the adressable market. Rolls ups are hard to value as they can increase value overnight with any m&a which wasnt known before. As long as they keep executing i am very fine holding this to oblivion. Business takes time, i am sure management has a plan to withstand the winter snd be ready for spring rally here.

Mortgage rates keep declining. Wish to see rates follow.

Expand full comment
Komodo Capital's avatar

Appreciate the kind words, Unai! Totally agree. I feel that investors who value $AEP.V on a trailing basis are doing themselves a disservice. I think the earnings power of this business after the acquisition of LCF (Léon Chouinard et Fils) is more substantial than what the market is ascribing value to. Time will tell... thanks for your thoughts, and the support!

Expand full comment
Banash capital's avatar

Very nice report. Thanks for making this, will use this for reference from now on. What about valuation?

Expand full comment
Komodo Capital's avatar

Hey @Banash Capital, thanks for the question. With the extremely long runway for both rollup and organic opportunities, not to mention penetrating the US market. I think it's very fairly valued at ~6.3x TTM EBITDA. However, they're also the industry leader in Canada with some serious competitive advantages that should help distance themselves from a valuation perspective relative to other EWP firms, (both in the US and Canada). I wouldn't say they're dirt cheap, but I like the catalysts contributing to forward growth, and believe AEP.V is better valued on that metric, than a TTM one. Hope this helps, thanks for reading!

Expand full comment